What Were the Odds That Japan Would Beat Germany?

A Shocking Upset: Setting the Stage

When Japan faced Germany during the 2022 FIFA World Cup, almost no one gave the Samurai Blue a real shot. I mean, come on — this was Germany, four-time world champions, stacked with elite players from the Bundesliga and top European clubs. Japan? Technically solid, sure, but few stars on the global radar. So yeah, on paper, it looked like a mismatch.

Bookmakers placed Japan as heavy underdogs. Most odds sat around 7 to 1 for a Japanese win. That’s roughly a 12-13% implied probability — not quite impossible, but close to a long shot. A draw was priced somewhere around 4 to 1, and a German win? Well, it was the safe bet, around 1.4 (that’s about a 70-75% chance).

But odds are just numbers. Football — and this World Cup especially — had other plans.

What Made Japan’s Win So Unlikely?

Germany’s Powerhouse Reputation

Let’s be real. Germany rarely loses its opening games in major tournaments. They’re tactical beasts, disciplined, and offensively ruthless. In the last decade, they dismantled Brazil 7–1 (who forgets that?), and even in their weaker tournaments, they rarely go down without a fight.

Their starting lineup featured top-tier talent: Neuer, Kimmich, Gündoğan, Musiala... These guys aren’t just good — they’re world-class.

Japan’s Position Going In

Japan didn’t exactly stroll into the World Cup as favorites in any capacity. Sure, they qualified confidently from the Asian qualifiers, but in the global picture, they weren’t seen as a threat to a team like Germany.

What made their odds even slimmer was their style: high energy, yes — but often seen as lacking the final edge in the attacking third. Historically, they’ve been disciplined, not daring.

But hey, this version of Japan wasn’t playing by the old rulebook.

What Actually Happened in the Match?

Germany led 1–0 at halftime. Gündoğan scored from the penalty spot. Everything looked like business as usual. Possession? Germany dominated. Shots? Germany again. Honestly, it seemed like just a matter of how many they’d score.

But then... boom.

Japan flipped the script in the second half. Coach Hajime Moriyasu made brave substitutions — sending on Asano and Doan — and they paid off. Both scored. The second goal, especially — Asano’s sharp-angled rocket past Neuer — that was pure magic. You couldn’t make it up.

Germany got sloppy, Japan got bold. And in 15 frantic minutes, the whole game tilted.

Was It Really That Crazy?

You could say yes — the odds, the context, the pedigree gap — all pointed to a German win. But if you looked closer... maybe it wasn’t that insane?

Japan’s Tactical Brilliance

Japan played smart. They didn’t go toe-to-toe like fools. They absorbed pressure, stayed compact, then pounced. Classic rope-a-dope. It wasn’t luck — it was strategy.

And those subs? Brave and perfectly timed. That takes guts, not just numbers.

Germany’s Vulnerabilities

Honestly, Germany had been shaky even before the tournament. Their defense, especially on transitions, looked suspect in qualifiers. And let’s not forget — they crashed out of the group stage in 2018 too. Something’s not quite clicking post-2014 glory.

What Does It Say About Modern Football?

This match — and several others in that World Cup — reminded us: football ain't math. Rankings, transfer fees, and form mean less and less in one-off games.

Teams like Japan, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia — they showed up with belief and modern tactics. The gap between “big” and “small” nations? It's closing fast.

And yeah, if you’d asked me an hour before kickoff whether Japan could beat Germany, I’d probably have said, “Nah, no way.” But now? Well — never say never in football. That’s what makes it so damn beautiful.

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