What Percent of Marriages End in Divorce? The Real Story

Is it really 50%? Let’s unpack that myth

So, you’ve probably heard the classic line: “Half of all marriages end in divorce.” I used to believe that too. It was like this looming statistic hanging over every wedding invitation I got. But… turns out that number isn’t quite right anymore.

Actually, divorce rates have been declining in recent years, especially among younger couples (which, honestly, surprised me). According to the latest CDC and Census data, around 39% to 42% of marriages end in divorce in the U.S.

Yeah, still a pretty big chunk — but not the doom-and-gloom 50% everyone throws around.

I remember talking to my friend Amanda (she’s a therapist), and she said:

“People cling to that 50% stat like it’s fate. It’s not. It’s just lazy math.”

That hit me. So I did the digging.

Why the divorce rate isn’t what it used to be

Generational shifts are a big deal

Millennials, for example, are actually less likely to get divorced than Boomers or Gen X. Why? A few theories:

• They're marrying later (late 20s to early 30s)

• They often live together first

• They’re generally more picky (which isn’t necessarily a bad thing)

My cousin Emma, who got married at 32, told me, “I waited longer because I knew myself better at that age — and honestly, I wasn’t about to divorce after planning that wedding.”

And get this: the divorce rate for people under 35 has dropped by nearly 20% in the last couple of decades.

Second marriages still have higher divorce rates

This part stings a bit. While first marriages hover around that 40% range, second marriages have a 60-67% chance of ending in divorce. Ouch. Third marriages? Even higher.

It’s like the odds get worse with each attempt. I don’t say that to be cynical — just… something to think about if you’re heading into a second (or third) round.

What influences whether a marriage will last?

Money. Communication. Expectations. The usual suspects.

I once thought love was enough — like, if you really really care about someone, you’ll make it. But nah. Life hits hard.

Things that commonly lead to divorce:

• Financial stress (number one cause, not even joking)

• Poor communication (or yelling fights about dishes, let’s be honest)

• Lack of intimacy (not just physical, but emotional too)

• Different goals or expectations over time

Actually, my coworker Nate once said, “I didn’t divorce my wife because I stopped loving her — we just stopped being on the same team.” That’s real.

And yeah, social media doesn’t help

There’s this weird pressure now to look happy online, even when you’re falling apart behind the scenes. I know two couples who posted vacation selfies literally days before announcing a divorce. Like... how did we get here?

So, what does all this mean for you?

If you’re married (or thinking about it), don’t panic. Just know that divorce is common, but not inevitable. The stats don’t dictate your future. Your relationship does.

It’s kinda like driving. Just because car accidents exist doesn’t mean you shouldn’t drive — it just means you should wear your seatbelt, check your mirrors, and maybe avoid texting while turning left.

Same with marriage: check in, communicate, be honest — with them and yourself.

Final thoughts: stats are numbers. People are more.

Okay, so roughly 4 in 10 marriages end in divorce. Not great. Not terrible. But also? That means 6 in 10 don’t.

And honestly, sometimes divorce is the healthiest decision. I used to think of it as failure. Now? I see it as a reset — painful, yeah, but sometimes necessary.

The most important thing is why the marriage lasts — not just that it does.

And if you’re wondering about your own odds? Maybe ask less “what percent end in divorce” and more “what can I do to make this work?”
That question… is way more powerful.

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